A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."